 |
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST About Medium Range Predictions: As the name suggests, medium range predictions are mainly used to predict weather forecasting for areas, not specifically large or small. They are usually used for moderate range of areas. Techniques Employed: Various methods are employed for the prediction of weather using the medium range weather forecasting. Prominent amongst them include the Analog technique and the Ensemble Forecasting technique. Amongst these techniques, analog technique is the most complex and difficult method for the prediction of weather. In the analog technique, mostly the former events need to be remembered, which might be mimed by a forthcoming event. The most difficult aspect of analog technique is that, there are extremely rare cases when a perfect analog is found for any future event. This type of forecasting is also known by the name “pattern recognition”. This proves to be extremely helpful method for the observation of rainfall over large bodies of water such as oceans, seas. It is also useful in the forecasting of the distribution of rainfall and also, the amount of precipitation in the near future. Medium range forecasting employs this method but with a slight variation. This forecasting variation is known as teleconnections. In this method, the usage of system is primarily done in order to narrow down the position of another system, which is mainly within the boundaries of the surrounding regimen. ENSO-related phenomena are another method of using teleconnections. Miscellaneous: Although, it is mostly seen that a forecast model would eventually help in the forecasting of weather features, it won’t be surprising to note that the mistakes in the prediction of weather would invariably keep on growing with the time. This is primarily for the chaotic behaviour of atmosphere. This is indicative of the fact that the errors in weather forecast are inversely proportional with time. This means that with the increase in error, the forecast details decrease for want of accuracy. Sometimes, a point is made in the event of the margin of error being tremendously large such that the weather forecasts are completely wronged, in case of absence of correlation with the real atmospheric state. It may be noted that a single forecast does not give any proper indication of how accurate the forecast is going to be. |
 HOME 
|
|
MAIN
MENU |
