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NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECAST About Numerical Weather Predictions: In case of numerical weather prediction, the methods used for the prediction of weather is purely based on mathematics. The services of powerful supercomputer are required for the manipulation of the datasets and for the performance of the complex calculations, which are essential enough for making the results useful. Model of Numerical Weather Forecast: A computer program which provides meteorological knowledge for the future period at the given altitudes and positions is called a model. The model’s horizontal domain can have global nature in which the model cover the whole earth, or it can be on a regional scale in which only a part of the Earth gets covered. The other name for regional models is the limited-area models. In a model, calculations of weather forecasts are done with the help of the mathematical calculations in the physics of atmosphere. Due to the nonlinear nature of these equations, they are impossible to accurately solve them. These are the primary reason for the involvement of numerical methods, in order to obtain rough weather estimates. The solution methods vary based on the models used. Very often, spectral methods are employed for the horizontal dimensions and, in case of the models having global scale the vertical dimensions are generally used, by the finite difference method. In all the three dimensions, finite difference methods are usually imposed on models having regional constraints. For the resolution of small scale meteorological phenomenon, finer grids are also a better option for regional models. This is also due to the fact that, the regional models need to solve the equations enveloping the entire globe. Miscellaneous: It is very difficult to forecast the atmospheric state, as projected in the year 1963 by Dr. Edward Lorenz. This is for the fact that the nature of fluid dynamics is non-linear in trait. Due to the limited temporal and spatial resolution of the prevailing observation networks, in case of large water bodies, the factual state of the atmosphere is hard to ascertain. This is the reason for the usage of ensemble forecasting. Mostly, the “Ensemble Forecasting” is usually done considering the forecast variable’s ensemble mean and the spread of the ensemble. |
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