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WEATHER FORECAST About Weather Forecast: Weather forecast is defined as an application of science and technology, which helps predict the atmospheric state for future period and in a particular location. Since time immemorial, human beings have made numerous attempts to forecast weather. The two men, who are accredited with the birth of weather forecast, are Robert Fitzroy and Francais Beaufort. Both these scientists had tremendous influence on Government and Naval Circles in Britain. Initially, the press used to ridicule their work. As time progressed, their work gained scientific credibility and in due course of time, their work on weather forecast was accepted by the British Navy. Today, it forms the basis for all the modern weather forecasting. Initially, there was no technical know-how to forecast weather. With the modern equipments and the use of computer, more precise weather calculations are churned out today. Weather forecasts today are done by the collection of quantitative data about the current atmospheric state and with the help of scientific understanding of atmospheric processes, in order to project the evolution of the atmosphere. As the time gap between the present moment and the forecast time increases, the weather forecast becomes proportionally less accurate. Persistence Forecasting: Persistence forecasting is the simplest form of weather forecasting. It mostly relies upon the current conditions in forecasting the next day’s weather. This seems to be a valid method of forecasting the weather especially, during the steady state and more so in the summer season in the tropical regions. This method also depends on the existence of the stagnant weather pattern. It is used in both the long range and short range forecasts. Nowcasting: Nowcasting is specially used in order to forecast weather within the 1-12 hour timeframe. Within this range, the human forecaster has a better advantage, as compared to computer NWP models. This method also makes it possible to forecast smaller features. These include individual shower clouds having reasonable accuracy, which are often found to be very small for its resolution by a computer based model. By providing latest radar, satellite and observational data, a human may be able to have a better analysis of the small features present such that, more precise forecast with regards to the following few hours can be made. |
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